Reviewing our performance from 2024.

Procedure

This is largely me working out my thoughts on our Cork results & next steps for the party. I'll run through it looking at LEA boundaries as my map to help me focus onto smaller areas.

Cork City North West

9.52% (0.66 Quotas)

I won't discuss this one in any real detail since this is firmly Solidarity's territory & both our hopes for the locals would be to see Brian McCarthy re-elected. Unfortunately, their party strategising is their own business. (Although their strongest results were in the Shandon & Sundays Well B area, so I'd advocate for a good amount of focus here).

Cork City North East

7.08% (0.49 Quotas)

These results are Mick's so they act moreso as potential people to win over. We also have a pool of 16.53% (1.51 Quotas) of the area who voted for Sinn Féin to fish from. It's worth noting that in the locals just before, Solidarity had only won 4.49% (0.31 Quotas) while Sinn Féin won 9% (0.62 Quotas), with most of the difference coming from Ted Tynan's vote share of 6.55% (0.46 Quotas).

With Ted stepping back, even though most of his voters defaulted back to Sinn Féin & Mick Barry, his voters should generally be viewed as our clearest potential for growth with Rachel Hurley Walsh having not really managed to rebuild his electorate.

In this space, we have a clear argument for inserting ourselves to pull from (primarily) Ted's old base. If Asch is willing to put herself forward, I would view this as our main priority as we have the most space to win a seat.

In terms of which boxes should be our priority, Mick's strongest results came from St Patricks & Blackpool B (St Luke's, Arpatrick, & Near MacCurtain street).

Mallow

2.49% (0.15 Quotas)

This result is mostly from Mick's results in Mallow town (about 1.8:1 ratio in his favour). I wouldn't push for us to put forward a candidate at all here unless we had someone who was particularly invested in going forward. If I were on Mick's team here, I would advise them to put forward a local name to help the party brand for future general elections.

Cobh

2.39% (0.17 Quotas)

The ratio between Mick's voters & ours was roughy 3:4 in our favour. We bled some of Rola's support (which was at 3.81%) which is likely an inevitable result of not having her on the ticket. If Rola is interested in putting her name forward again, we definitely have a safe floor and a lot of potential for growth here. There was a strong enough contingent who voted SocDem or Sinn Féin who may be winnable on the local level.

Box level results analysis pending.

Cork City South-West

2.23% (0.18 Quotas)

Mick was the largest part of this number (2:1 in his favour) with his votes having come from Ballincollig while the Wilton/Bishopstown part was in our area. I wouldn't be pushing us to contest the area anytime soon, especially considering the geographic split of the area. If we do have people interested, I wouldn't be actively shooting down the idea.

In the SC part of the constituency, the strongest boxes were in the vicinity of CUH and the residential areas around Doughcloyne industrial estate.

Macroom

2.09% (0.15 Quotas)

Cork City South-Central

2.03% (0.14 Quotas)

Midleton

1.32% (0.11 Quotas)

Kanturk

1.26% (0.06 Quotas)

Cork City South East

1.16% (0.08 Quotas)

Carrigaline

1.15% (0.06 Quotas)

Bandon

0.91% (0.06 Quotas)

Bantry

0.87% (0.04 Quotas)

Skibbereen

0.86% (0.05 Quotas)